News

Weibull Distribution Challenged

Location:
29th April 2014  To: 29th April 2014

Ernst Hjalmar Waloddi Weibull is famous in scientific and technical world for his work in probability theory and statistics. His outstanding work on the Weibull distribution (now known after his name) has wide application in reliability theory, extreme events, failure rates etc. Weibull perhaps became more famous that he would have ever thought of  because of applicability of Weibull distribution to wind speed frequency distributions. The acceptance of Weibull distribution in the study of wind speed distributions has reached such levels that wind energy experts and engineers across the world have been assuming any or all wind speed distributions to follow two parameter Weibull distribution.
However, in recent work (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032114001877),  Jami Hossain and his colleagues at their firm Windforce Management Services Pvt Limited have challenged this generally accepted notion with regard to wind speed distributions.
In a paper titled “Multi-peak Gaussian fit applicability to wind speed distribution,” published in the Journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,  Jami Hossain and his colleagues have shown that multipeak Gaussian curves result in a better fit to wind distributions than the Weibull distribution. The work is based on robust analysis involving a study of more than 200 wind measurement sites. Due to the improved accuracy, this work can lead to significant improvement in assessment windfarm sites with regard to annual energy output from different types of wind turbines. “The results of the study by Jami Hossain have been obtained after a rigorous analysis and will be immensely useful for future research and improvements in methods,” Said Anil Kane, President Emeritus of World Wind Energy Association WWEA.
All the major wind resource simulation packages such as WaSP being used to carry out wind resource assessment, use Weibull distribution in their working. Jami Hossain who is also Chief Mentor and co-founder of Windforce Management Services Private Limited and the Technical Chair of World Wind Energy Association feels that the new method will improve the accuracy in energy calculation of proposed windfarms, reducing risks for developers and investors. “We are now working on a new wind resource assessment package that will provide more realistic assessment at any site,” said Jami Hossain. “We are doing trials and it will be released soon,” he added.

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